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Re: INSIGHT- PKK/ Ocalan

Date	2010-08-18 20:25:01
From	reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To	analysts@stratfor.com
Others	Listname: mailtanalysts@stratfor.com MessageId: <2E0FB0C3-2B62-4716-8DCA-BBEFEE9B0948@stratfor.com> InReplyT 4C6C23F0.8020603@stratfor.com
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pls ask how the power dynamic works between Ocalan and Karayalin... especially when it comes to the wishes of the more radical European factions. Who has more clout when it comes to actual military operations. Not disputing that Ocalan is still the spiritual leader of PKK. what is AKP offering PKK in return for keeping the ceasefire through the referendum? how long does PKK plan to maintain the ceasefire? On Aug 18, 2010, at 1:18 PM, Michael Wilson wrote: CODE: N/A PUBLICATION: N/A ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source in Iraqi-Kurdistan SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish journalist well connected with PKK and Kurdish officials. Some times he spends afew nights in Qandil with PKK SOURCE RELIABILITY: A ITEM CREDIBILITY: B DISTRIBUTION: Analysts HANDLER: Yerevan The source says it's a strategic mistake for anyone or government to think that Ocalan has lost it's clout over the PKK. He says Ocalan is not just a leader but is a spiritual one who has been able to hold the Pkk together for years despite being in Prrsion. He added that Ocalan is just like Sheikh Ahmed Yassin of Hamas, despite being in prison, still he was the leader and his directives were considered. He also said all rhe developments happening in Turkey now is because of Ocalan' strategies and tactics to make the government move about the Kurdish issue. He also claimed that if Ocalan had died, then pkk had long been collapsed from in side. He said now pkk is following a new stratgy which is sanctioned by Ocalan which is the strategy of fighting and then give a temporal cease fire to both make government think that they are still there and make them to talk to them, which getting international attention. He believed that in From October the kurdish issue will see big attention in Turkey. The source is in Erbil right now, willl come back and talk in person intensively about this and pkk future plans. If you have any specific questions, let me know. Sent from my iPhone Michael Wilson Watch Officer, STRATFOR Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

                                  INSIGHT: Ocalan and the PKK relations

Date	2010-08-23 18:49:18
From	michael.wilson@stratfor.com
To	analysts@stratfor.com
Others	Listname: mailtanalysts@stratfor.com MessageId: <4C72A68E.8060109@stratfor.com> InReplyT 4C72A0E9.9070307@stratfor.com
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PUBLICATION: background ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ocaln's aide in Syria and now with close ties with the PKK SOURCE A Reliability : A BA ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan Last night, I had an hour talks with this guy. A He was very interesting, but liked to talk more about PKKA philosophy and ideology. A Regarding the current clout of Ocalan over the PKK, he says,A There are a number of A PKK leaders in fact. It has no only one leader, because PKK is a system of life in the terms of politics, economy.A environment, administration and for the future. And, Ocalan leads that system via his ideology and thinking. its true that Ocalan is imprisoned,A A but his ideology and the system is notA imprisoned. Ocaln is still alive and the current leaders of the PKK dont marginalized him and all his guidances and recommendations are considered. A PKK certainly take Ocalan into account and follow his recommendations. the current leaders of the PKK do know who Ocalan is. Also, Ocalan say that now PKK has anA administration and system that can decide on war and peace as well. A He says that Ocalan does support what decisions come out of Qandil and dont object it. A Ocalan and the current leaders such as Karalyan. Bozan, Jamil Bayak , Avesta and others are completing each other.A He says that Turkey is a part of administrating Emrali prison. Israel, US, EU and Russia are theA harbingers and Turkey is the tail in fact when it comes to deal with Ocalan.A He said that the current ceasefire came at the result of NGO's. former BTP, Barzani and Ocalan himslef. A but mostA importantlyA , Ocalan's message from Emral.A He said that PKK decided to resume fighting in June to tell Turkey that we are still there and send a message to the world and Turkey that Turkey still has an internal issue, becauseA TurkeyA showed itself as the regional leader and has not any internal problems, and expanded its diplomacy through Balkans, Middle east and all the way to South America. Turkey was thinking that its now time to save Gaza. By A firing one bullet, PKK cut the expanding hand of Turkish diplomacy that wanted to emerge as a regional leaders. A He says that PKK was able to minimize TurkishA foreignA agenda in the region and almost abort its regional project which was an Islamic one. A He says that one can see that since PKK resumption of fighting, Turkish foreign policy is not as active as it used to be and now, Turkey is more focused on the domestic affairs.A Regarding Government talks with the PKK, he said, there has been indirect talks in the past, but about two weeks ago, aA committee, consisted on a number of peopleA went to Emrali and talked with Ocalan about the current cease fire.A He believed that fighting to resume after the deadline of the current ceasefire if Turkey doesnt take concrete steps regarding the conditions of the PKK.A Regarding BDP/ PKK relations, he says that the current leaders of the BDP are a part of the PKK system and they follow PKKA guidance, but PKK never commands them. And the leaders of BDP understand that if they dont be in line with the PKK guidance, then they are rejected by the people there. He believed that BDP and PKK are completing each other to develop the Kurdish cause and push the government to address the Kurdish issue.A A Yerevan Saeed STRATFOR Phone: 009647701574587 IRAQ Michael Wilson Watch Officer, STRATFOR Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

                INSIGHT - TURKEY/ TAK, PKK relations

Date	2010-11-04 14:51:27
From	colibasanu@stratfor.com
To	analysts@stratfor.com
Others	Listname: mailtanalysts@stratfor.com MessageId: <4CD2BA5F.8020107@stratfor.com> InReplyT 4CD2B163.1050506@stratfor.com
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Tried different sources, bu the main one who is the CNN corespondent in Istanbul told me he is in Athens now, watching/filming police clearing a bomb there. So asked me to shoot him an email. CODE: ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Iraq SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish chief editor, well connected to KRG and the PKK PUBLICATION: Background/Analysis SOURCE RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts SPECIAL HANDLING: None SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan The source says its hard to say that there is connection between PKK and TAK, because TAK has been not just defiant of Turkey, but the PKK and have worked. working to undermine talks between PKK (Ocalan) and Turkish government. The source says, for sure, the elements of TAK are not in Qandil, but they left in the mid 0f 2004 when they had difference views with the main stream PKK about the form of struggle. He also said that PKK leaders are not happy with what TAK are doing, especially when they dont make distinction between civilian and military and PKK leaders do believe that targeting civilians will not develop the Kurdish case in Turkey, but further alienate the outside sympathizers and give more pretext to military to assert itself. The source even suspects some kind of connection between military and TAK people, but said that this is a theory, but given what TAK is doing in this critical stage, parallels with what military and the deep state forces want. The source says, TAK are within the Turkish cities and mostly in Istanbul and Western Turkey, even they dont have that much presene in South East where the Kurds are. The source also said that so far not much is known about the nature of the organization, programs, but noted that they consider Ocalan as the real leader of theirs.